The Novo Nordisk A/S headquarters in Bagsvaerd, Denmark, on Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025.
Nichlas Pollier | Bloomberg | Getty Photos
Novo Nordisk inventory fell over 15% Monday after it stated its next-generation weight reduction drug did not meet its key purpose of exhibiting that it wasn’t inferior to Eli Lilly’s rival drug, within the newest blow to the Danish drugmaker, whose inventory is buying and selling at a multi-year low after a sequence of disappointing bulletins.
The experimental drug, CagriSema, did not obtain its main endpoint of demonstrating non-inferiority on weight reduction when in comparison with Eli Lilly’s rival drug tirzepatide after 84 weeks, Novo stated in a press release Monday morning.
Tirzepatide is the lively ingredient in Lilly’s mega-blockbuster medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have overtaken Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, offered as Ozempic and Wegovy, in U.S. prescriptions.
Novo’s Copenhagen-listed shares have been final seen down 16% at 251 Danish kroner, hitting their lowest stage since June 2021.
Eli Lilly‘s inventory was down 4.7%. Lilly additionally launched a brand new type of Zepbound, which provides a month’s value of doses in a single pen on Monday.
Novo Nordisk ADR’s are severely underperforming Eli Lilly shares.
Sufferers taking a 2.4 mg dose of CagriSema achieved a weight lack of 23% after 84 weeks in comparison with 25.5% with a 15 mg dose of tirzepatide, Novo stated.
The trial was a so-called open-label trial, which means individuals knew what therapy they have been receiving. Such a design can introduce a threat of bias in favor of a widely known product when it’s in comparison with an investigational remedy, Novo’s Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange informed CNBC’s Charlotte Reed.
There have been some “barely shocking outcomes” for the market drug, on this case tirzepatide, he added.
Lilly’s personal research have proven tirzepatide to lead to a 20.2% weight reduction over 72 weeks for individuals dwelling with weight problems or obese.
Eli Lilly did not instantly reply to a CNBC request for remark.
Subsequent-generation weight reduction medicine
Novo filed CagriSema for approval from the U.S. Meals and Drug Administration late final yr, and a choice is anticipated by late 2026. It has excessive hopes for the drug, which mixes semaglutide and cagrilintide, one other hormone launched within the pancreas that impacts urge for food.
Regardless of Monday’s disappointing outcomes, Novo CEO Mike Doustdar remained upbeat about CagriSema’s potential.
“We strongly imagine that CagriSema has, proper now, the very best weight efficacy than any product presently out there,” he stated.
Novo is exploring extra trials to check CagriSema, together with higher-dose mixtures, the corporate stated.
“CagriSema has the potential to be the primary GLP-1/amylin-combination product to achieve the marketplace for individuals dwelling with weight problems, documenting that cagrilintide provides to the present advantages of semaglutide and provides clinically significant additive weight reduction results superior to what has been noticed with GLP-1 biology alone,” stated Novo’s Lange, including that additional trials would “assess the complete weight-loss potential of CagriSema.”
Nevertheless, the failure of CagiSema to fulfill non-inferiority versus Zepbound provides additional uncertainty, and the drug’s business positioning is more and more unclear, stated Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten.
CagriSema might account for between 15% and 25% of Novo’s income by 2030, “highlighting the urgent want for M&A,” Leuchten stated, forecasting that Novo might spend as much as $35 billion on M&A this yr.
One other blow
Monday’s trial result’s one other blow to the Danish drugmaker because it fell brief towards a drug already available on the market, and comes after the inventory fell practically 50% in 2025.
Earlier this month, Novo predicted that its gross sales and revenue progress would decline by between 5% and 13% in 2026, as the corporate navigates competitors, decrease costs within the U.S., and the lack of exclusivity for Wegovy and Ozempic in sure markets.
“Folks ought to count on that it goes down earlier than it comes again up,” Novo’s Doustdar informed CNBC on the time.
In the meantime, Lilly guided for gross sales to develop by about 25% in 2026.
Novo began the yr with a powerful launch of the primary GLP-1 capsule for weight reduction within the U.S., the Wegovy capsule, however Doustdar stated it wasn’t sufficient to offset challenges in different elements of its enterprise. Eli Lilly is anticipated to launch a rival capsule within the second quarter of 2026.
On high of competitors from Lilly, Novo gross sales have taken successful as a result of competitors from compounding pharmacies that promote copycat variations of semaglutide for a lower cost, in what Novo has known as “unlawful mass compounding that poses a big threat to affected person security.”
The FDA stated earlier this month that it deliberate to take authorized motion towards telehealth agency Hims & Hers, together with limiting entry to elements and referring it to the Division of Justice, after Hims supplied a Wegovy capsule copy for considerably cheaper than Novo sells the branded capsule for. Hims rapidly pulled the capsule after the backlash.
