Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) takes half within the “Anti-Imperialist” protest in entrance of the US Embassy in opposition to the US incursion in Venezuela, the place 32 Cuban troopers misplaced their lives, in Havana on January 16, 2026.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Photographs
“Cuba’s subsequent,” mentioned Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican and ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, after the U.S. and Israel started strikes on Iran.
The U.S. has imposed an oil blockade on the communist-run island nation since January, shortly after its ally and a key supplier of oil, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, was seized in a unprecedented U.S navy operation. It has prompted a worsening financial disaster and left Cuba dealing with its greatest take a look at because the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now Iran, with which Cuba has a strategic partnership, is underneath sustained assault. “This communist dictatorship in Cuba, their days are numbered,” Graham instructed Fox Information’s “Sunday Night time in America.”
Earlier than the Iran strikes, Trump mentioned he needed a “pleasant takeover” of the island, with out giving particulars. The feedback, alongside the U.S. assaults on Iran and Venezuela, have performed little to allay rising fears in Havana, specialists instructed CNBC.
The message from Cuba is one which has been fixed since 1959: survival will solely be achieved by means of adaptation to the altering geopolitical context.
Par Kumaraswami
professor on the College of Nottingham
A “pleasant takeover” may resemble Venezuela within the aftermath of Maduro’s removing, “the place you continue to have an authoritarian regime in energy however transferring within the route and on the velocity that the US determines,” mentioned Carlos Photo voltaic, senior analysis fellow, Latin American Safety at RUSI, a London-based protection assume tank.
Photo voltaic instructed CNBC by electronic mail that Cuba had misplaced assist from Venezuela and Iran “at a second of most stress” from the Trump administration.
However he added: “What’s unclear is how the US will make the Cuban regime break, forcing Havana to capitulate.”
“We’re not seeing the sort of navy buildup prelude to operation Absolute Resolve that finally led to Maduro being captured in January. It may properly be that the US approaches Cuba in a completely totally different approach,” Photo voltaic mentioned.
A Turkish Airways airplane takes off at Jose Marti Worldwide Airport in Havana on February 9, 2026.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Photographs
A spokesperson for the White Home and Cuba’s embassy in London didn’t reply to a CNBC request for remark.
Cuba’s Overseas Affairs Ministry has known as for an finish to the Center East battle and mentioned it “condemns within the strongest phrases” the joint U.S. and Israel assault on Iran on Feb. 28.
‘Cubans are more and more involved’
Russia not too long ago warned that the state of affairs in Cuba seemed to be escalating after Cuban forces killed 4 individuals who have been off its coast in a U.S.-registered speedboat.
The blockade has successfully lower Cuba off from Venezuelan oil since launching a navy operation to seize Maduro on Jan. 3. Cuba mentioned 32 of its residents have been killed within the assault.
Trump has additionally mentioned Cuba’s authorities poses “an uncommon and extraordinary risk” and pledged to impose tariffs on any nation that provides it with oil. The U.S. Treasury mentioned late final month, nevertheless, that it will permit the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s personal sector.
The transfer appeared to mirror a small step to alleviate the island’s acute gas scarcity, which has pressured a wave of airways lower flights to the nation. Tourism has lengthy been a big income for Cuba’s cash-strapped authorities.
A bicitaxi rides previous rubbish piled up on a road in Havana on February 17, 2026.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Photographs
Par Kumaraswami, professor of Latin American Research on the U.Ok.’s College of Nottingham, instructed CNBC the Trump administration’s strikes in opposition to Iran and up to date feedback about Cuba’s regime had elevated the temper of uncertainty and anxiousness in Havana.
“Cubans are more and more involved about how they are going to survive within the midst of such world chaos, and the current violence in opposition to Iran could have performed nothing to allay their fears,” Kumaraswami mentioned by electronic mail.
“On the identical time, there are indications that the US administration is negotiating with the Cuban authorities relating to adjustments to Cuba’s economic system, and that is certainly mirrored by Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s present deal with financial enchancment because the precedence,” she added.
Kumaraswami mentioned the “message from Cuba” had been “fixed” because the communists got here to energy in 1959: “Survival will solely be achieved by means of adaptation to the altering geopolitical context.”
‘Cuba simply purchased itself a window’
Cuba has adopted measures to guard important companies and ration gas provides for key sectors. The United Nations has beforehand warned of a potential humanitarian “collapse” because the nation’s oil provides dwindle.
“Cuba simply purchased itself a window — however it’s a slim one,” Robert Munks, head of Americas analysis in danger intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, instructed CNBC by electronic mail.
“The operation in opposition to Iran removes Cuba – quickly – from Washington’s sights, because the US administration will likely be preoccupied with the Gulf marketing campaign within the coming weeks.”
However Munks mentioned he anticipated Cuba to return to the headlines, including that the Cuban diaspora in South Florida would apply stress and Washington has proven it’s prioritizing the Western Hemisphere in its reworked nationwide safety technique.
“The regime in Havana stays in management, for the second. Any unrest brought on by financial hardship might be sudden and spontaneous, which might give Washington a pretext to refocus on pressuring the regime,” Munks mentioned.
