Gasoline nozzles cling at a petroleum pump at a gasoline station in Guwahati, India, on March 11, 2026. Oil costs reverse course from latest highs, slipping to round 90 USD a barrel after remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump on the Iran battle. Markets stay unsettled as merchants monitor the evolving geopolitical state of affairs. (Picture by David Talukdar/NurPhoto through Getty Photographs)
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India’s shopper inflation rose for the fourth straight month to three.21% in February, up from 2.75% within the earlier month.
The headline inflation quantity was in step with economists’ expectations for a 3.1% rise within the shopper value index, in accordance with a Reuters ballot.
Meals inflation rose 3.47% year-on-year in February, additionally up from a 2.13% rise in January, India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation stated in a launch Thursday.
That is the second shopper value index studying beneath a revised information collection, with the bottom 12 months modified to 2024 from 2012 to mirror adjustments in consumption patterns.
The bottom 12 months was modified as a result of “vital structural adjustments have occurred in consumption behaviour, earnings ranges, urbanisation, enlargement of the companies sector, and digitalization,” the federal government stated in an announcement in February.
India’s central financial institution expects inflation for the present monetary 12 months to be 2.1%, it stated at its final financial coverage assembly on Feb. 5, including that meals provide prospects “stay shiny” within the close to time period.
Nonetheless, specialists stated that whereas inflation will stay inside the Reserve Financial institution of India’s 2% to six% goal vary, it’s unlikely to set off coverage motion owing to the escalating battle within the Center East.
Looming power disaster
The U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran has disrupted maritime visitors within the Strait of Hormuz — a key hall for world power commerce — threatening India’s provide of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gasoline (LPG), a major cooking gasoline.
Presently, round 90% of India’s LPG imports transit by way of the Strait of Hormuz, the federal government stated in a observe on Wednesday. About 70% of crude imports presently come from routes exterior the Strait of Hormuz, up from about 55% earlier.
Whereas households will not be but going through a scarcity of cooking gasoline, costs have risen. Many lodges and eating places within the nation that use business LPG cylinders are going through closure as provide has been diverted to households.
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India’s “Goldilocks narrative of robust development and low inflation” has continued beneath the brand new GDP and CPI collection however is “challenged by greater crude oil costs and gasoline shortages,” world brokerage Nomura stated in a report on Wednesday.
It added that “elevated oil costs” attributable to disruptions within the Center East are prone to curb the Reserve Financial institution of India’s dovishness. “We anticipate a coverage [rate] maintain from right here on,” the report stated.
International oil costs have risen sharply for the reason that begin of the U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran, with Brent crude touching $100 a barrel earlier right this moment.
Correction: This story has been up to date to mirror that about 70% of India’s crude imports presently come from routes exterior the Strait of Hormuz. An earlier model stated that round 30% of India’s crude oil provides transit by way of the Strait.
