Though the Supreme Court docket struck down a big portion of President Donald Trump‘s tariff agenda — with a decide later ordering the federal government to arrange to doubtlessly pay billions of {dollars} in refunds to importers who paid the tariffs — customers should not anticipate to see any a refund.
That is in keeping with the most recent CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey. Whereas 12 of the 25 chief monetary officers mentioned their firm plans to use for tariff refunds, none mentioned they intend to straight share that cash with prospects.
Six of these polled mentioned they didn’t plan to move on any portion of the tariff refunds they may obtain, seven weren’t positive and 12 answered “not relevant.”
Ten of the executives within the C-suite mentioned they suppose it may take a yr or longer to obtain reimbursement, and solely three of the CFOs anticipated reimbursement this yr. The opposite 12 CFOs mentioned they don’t plan to use for tariff refunds.
The CFO Council survey is a sampling of views from chief monetary officers at giant organizations throughout sectors of the U.S. financial system. CFO Council members took the survey between March 23 and April 2.
In the meantime, the authorized battle over Trump’s tariffs is much from over. The identical day the Supreme Court docket dominated in February that “reciprocal tariffs” have been unlawful, Trump introduced a brand new “international tariff” fee of 10% beneath a separate statute, Part 122 of the Commerce Act of 1974, for a interval of 150 days. He later mentioned he would improve international tariffs to fifteen%.
US President Donald Trump speaks throughout a gathering with Chancellor Merz (CDU) on the White Home. Subjects embrace the warfare in Iran, the tariff dispute between the EU and the USA, the Russian warfare of aggression towards Ukraine and China coverage.
Kay Nietfeld | Image Alliance | Getty Photographs
Tariffs are taxes on imports from overseas nations and are paid by U.S. entities that import the merchandise. Companies typically bear a few of the value and move on the remaining to customers by means of larger costs. On this means, tariffs have had an total inflationary affect on the financial system, economists say.
Even when corporations have been to obtain refunds, the CNBC CFO Council survey outcomes are “not a shock,” mentioned Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
After factoring within the hefty toll on U.S. companies, together with larger prices and provide chain changes to scale back tariff publicity, CFOs could also be considering “that is simply compensation,” Zandi mentioned, “they will maintain on to these [refunds].”
The Trump administration might strain corporations to move these financial savings on, he added, “however that shall be very tough to do.”
The place tariff rebate efforts stand
The president has floated the thought of placing some tariff income straight within the palms of Individuals, within the type of a tariff dividend verify. Nevertheless, any such broad-based profit program would require laws handed by Congress.
Each Democrats and Republicans have tried to capitalize on Trump’s tariff agenda forward of the 2026 midterm elections. No laws has been authorised but, though a number of tariff refund payments have been launched in Congress.
Final yr, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., launched the American Employee Rebate Act of 2025, which pitched a stimulus verify funded with tariff income. The Senate referred that invoice to the Committee on Finance, the place it stays.
In March of this yr, Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., launched one other invoice that may create a brand new tax rebate for these hit by larger prices for on a regular basis gadgets as a result of now-defunct tariff regime. Heinrich’s invoice, dubbed the Tariff Refunds for Working Households Act, would faucet the $166 billion collected by the tariffs to fund the brand new rebate.
That laws has additionally been referred to the Committee on Finance.
Different efforts, together with the Trump Tariff Rebate Act launched by Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., and the American Shopper Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, launched by Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, are sitting in Home committees.
“The probability of tariff refunds passing in Congress nonetheless appears distant,” mentioned licensed monetary planner Stephen Kates, a monetary analyst at Bankrate.
“A Republican-backed invoice would all however admit that tariffs have been a coverage mistake, even when it will be initially well-liked to ship out checks,” he mentioned. “Democrats have little incentive to assist such a measure forward of the midterms, because the prices of tariffs and better fuel costs are broadly related to Republicans.”
