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The common tax refund is 10.2% increased up to now this season, in comparison with about the identical interval in 2025, in response to the most recent IRS submitting information. The year-over-year share change is down from the 14.2% enhance reported final week.
As of Feb. 20, the common refund quantity for particular person filers was $3,804, up from $3,453 about one yr prior, the IRS reported on Friday.
The whole quantity refunded was about $109 billion, up 6.9% from 2025, in response to the IRS launch. However the complete returns processed have been down by 2.4%.
Amid client issues about affordability, the Trump administration has emphasised how Trump’s “massive stunning invoice” might affect the dimensions of tax refunds this season.
In a late January launch, the White Home mentioned common tax refunds may enhance “by $1,000 or extra,” citing a number of media experiences that reference early October analysis from funding financial institution Piper Sandler.
A Feb. 26 report from Oxford Economics estimates that tax refunds will soar by practically 20% this yr, with extra advantages flowing to middle- and upper-income households than traditional, primarily based on modifications enacted by way of Trump’s 2025 tax cuts.
Nevertheless, particular person refunds may range primarily based on 2025 paycheck withholdings and which of Trump’s provisions affect their household’s scenario, consultants say.
Common tax refunds sometimes enhance by late February
By legislation, the IRS cannot ship refunds claiming the earned revenue tax credit score or the refundable a part of the little one tax credit score, generally known as the extra little one tax credit score or ACTC, till Feb. 15.
Which means the company’s first two submitting season statistics releases, reflecting information by way of Feb. 6 and Feb. 13, respectively, didn’t embody the thousands and thousands of refunds with these credit.
“As we head into late February, the common refund dimension pops — it will get bigger,” mentioned Andrew Lautz, director of tax coverage for the Bipartisan Coverage Heart, a nonprofit suppose tank.
From Feb. 13 to Feb. 20, the common tax refund dimension jumped from $2,476 to $3,804. However with restricted tax submitting information, it is too early to make conclusions about common tax refunds this season, consultants say.
For 2025 returns, the utmost EITC is value as much as $8,046 for filers with three or extra qualifying kids. For 2024 returns, the common EITC fee was $2,916, in response to the IRS. Trump’s tax cuts didn’t change the EITC for 2025.
Trump’s laws made everlasting a better little one tax credit score and boosted the utmost tax break to $2,200. The refundable portion, ACTC, will proceed to regulate to inflation, however Trump’s cuts didn’t change the quantity from 2024. The ACTC is value as much as $1,700 for 2025.
