Mike Doustdar, CEO of Novo Nordisk, speaks within the Oval Workplace throughout an occasion about weight reduction medicine on the White Home, Nov. 6, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Photos
Novo Nordisk entered 2026 with the momentum of a historic 12 months in additional methods than one — however latest weeks have delivered extra drama than most corporations may count on over a decade.
The Danish drugmaker kicked off the 12 months with the explosive launch of the first-ever GLP-1 tablet for weight problems. Its latest challenges have centered round defending its market share within the blockbuster weight reduction drug market, all whereas its inventory value swings wildly.
This week, Novo sued upstart telehealth supplier Hims & Hers for alleged patent infringement and obtained its personal warning from the Meals and Drug Administration for what the company says is deceptive claims in promoting. That every one adopted a 2026 outlook that dissatisfied buyers and stood in stark distinction to its chief rival, Eli Lilly.
Whereas Lilly guided to 2026 gross sales progress of 25%, Novo forecast that gross sales and income may decline as a lot as 13% this 12 months.
“Sufficient has occurred up to now week to occupy just a few volumes,” stated Deutsche Financial institution analyst Emmanuel Papadakis on Tuesday, as he — like a lot of his Wall Avenue friends — lowered his value goal on the inventory following the gloomy outlook.
The fast information stream has given buyers whiplash. To this point this calendar 12 months, U.S.-listed Novo shares have traded throughout a variety starting from $43.24 to $64.16, shedding as a lot as 14% in a single day solely to realize 10% again in a later session.
Novo Nordisk U.S.-listed shares during the last month.
The newest developments add to a thorny state of affairs for Novo because it dangers being edged out by Lilly and cheaper compounded variations of semaglutide, that are unapproved copycats of Novo’s Wegovy jab.
CEO Mike Doustdar, who took the reins in August after the former CEO was ousted over misjudging the U.S. market and challenges there, has a plan to steer the corporate by what’s been described as a “present me” 12 months.
His agenda is intensive: cracking down on these compounded knockoffs, sustaining robust demand for its newly launched weight problems tablet, constructing prescription volumes within the U.S. and bringing new next-generation weight problems and diabetes therapies to market.
In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Doustdar acknowledged the challenges forward however stated 2026 “can be a 12 months of progress in some ways.”
“We may have extra sufferers this 12 months than ever earlier than, we’ll produce greater than final 12 months and years earlier than that,” he stated.
Doustdar stated round 246,000 sufferers are at present on the corporate’s Wegovy tablet, which launched in the beginning of January and is already outpacing the early rollouts of present GLP-1 injections.
“This, in fact, tells me that whereas the buyers are feeling a little bit of a headwind on the pricing facet and the entire enterprise as you are alluding to, they’re hopefully getting satisfied that over a time period that will wash out and that progress will come,” Doustdar stated.
The compounding concern
Novo has repeatedly cited compounding pharmacies as a key motive for its slowing gross sales progress. The corporate estimates 1.5 million People are at present taking the copycat weight reduction medicine provided by Hims & Hers, in addition to some wellness clinics and compounding pharmacies.
Telehealth companies like Hims have profited massively from promoting so-called compounded variations of injectable semaglutide beneath a regulatory loophole that permits different corporations to promote copycats of the medicine if the branded medicines are in brief provide. Whereas branded semaglutide injections are not in brief provide after a notable demand spike, the businesses have continued to mass market cheaper variations on to customers, elevating authorized questions.
“We perceive why compounding, mass compounding, obtained began. It was on the again of a scarcity. We actually do not perceive why it continued,” Doustdar informed CNBC on Wednesday, noting that Novo’s opposition has nothing to do with medically obligatory compounding for particular person circumstances.
Hims final week introduced plans to promote a compounded model of Novo’s newly launched Wegovy tablet for roughly $100 lower than Novo sells the branded model for, although it shortly backed down after Novo stated it will sue over patent infringement and the FDA introduced a broader crackdown on compounding. The company additionally stated it had referred Hims to the Division of Justice over potential violations.
The Hers web site organized on a laptop computer in New York, Feb. 12, 2025.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Photos
Novo moved to sue Hims on Monday over compounded variations of each injectable and oral semaglutide, including to greater than 130 lawsuits the drugmaker has filed in opposition to pharmacies, wellness clinics and different companies advertising these copycats.
“The information final Thursday concerning the tablet … was seen as type of the final straw for many individuals,” Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Simon Baker informed CNBC.
From the perspective of U.S. regulators, eradicating cheaper medicine from the market at a time when the Trump administration has made decrease drug costs for People a precedence won’t have been a straightforward promote, Baker stated.
However, “once we obtained the transfer on the tablet, there was a realization that this has simply gone slightly bit too far,” he added. “You possibly can’t have folks launching knockoff variations of drugs 5 weeks after the model will get launched.
“That might destroy the trade.”
If Novo can get the compounding concern beneath management, the corporate can doubtlessly win again some market share and switch issues round for gross sales projections, stated BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman.
Doustdar referred to as it “a really robust sign” that the federal government acknowledged the compounding struggle with Hims and “articulated that very publicly. We welcome that.”
After all, a authorities crackdown on compounding would not clear the best way for Novo alone.
Lilly’s weight problems drug Zepbound already enjoys vital market share, and the corporate is getting ready to launch its personal oral model.
The market share race
A mixture picture reveals an injection pen of Zepbound, Eli Lilly’s weight reduction drug, and bins of Wegovy, made by Novo Nordisk.
Hollie Adams | Reuters
The battle for U.S. market share may quantity to a must-win for Novo: The load loss phase accounted for greater than half of its gross sales in 2025.
Lilly is estimated to have round 60% of the branded GLP-1 market globally, whereas Novo has about 39%. Novo has additionally highlighted a spot within the “desire share” for Wegovy versus Lilly’s injections.
Lilly’s Zepbound has proven extra pronounced weight reduction than Wegovy and has turn into the popular drugs amongst sufferers and prescribers, regardless of launching years after Novo’s medicine.
Within the U.S., Novo estimates that between 7 and eight sufferers out of 10 go to Lilly.
In the meantime, within the compounding market, the share of copycats for Novo’s drug far outweighs that of Lilly’s.
“It is a curious query as to why within the branded market, Lilly has a a lot larger share than Novo however within the compounded market, there’s much more of Novo’s molecule than there’s of Lilly’s,” Baker famous. “We do not know the reply.”
Novo is banking on the Wegovy tablet to assist with its eroding market share and says it is already reaching fully new sufferers. Doustdar has stated that 88% of individuals on the tablet are taking the bottom starter dose of the drug, signaling that many sufferers have been ready on oral choices.
Lilly is anticipated to launch its rival weight reduction tablet, orforglipron, within the second quarter of 2026. Buyers are carefully watching how that can pan out, particularly as Novo has misplaced its first-mover benefit earlier than.
“They’re placing plenty of muscle behind the advertising of [Wegovy pill], together with now a reinvigorated direct-to-consumer channel, which they had been slightly bit late to reach at,” TD Cowen analyst Michael Nedelcovych informed CNBC. “That appears to be paying dividends.”
Wegovy semaglutide tablets.
Michael Siluk | Common Photos Group | Getty Photos
Doustdar touted the tablet’s efficacy, which is on par with the Wegovy injection and superior to Lilly’s oral drug, based mostly on separate medical trials. The Wegovy tablet confirmed round 16.6% weight reduction on common in contrast with roughly 12.4% on common with Lilly’s oral drug.
“For those who use these two numbers, mainly you’ve got a 40% distinction between the efficacy of those drugs,” he stated. “I feel that is going to be a really important, important promoting level of the tablet.”
When Lilly finally launches orforglipron, its major advertising level will probably be aimed toward convincing prospects that the Wegovy tablet is inconvenient due to sure meals restrictions. That makes Novo’s head begin additional necessary because it affords them an opportunity to put the groundwork and persuade folks of the opposite.
Novo contends that these dietary necessities will not hinder uptake. However Leerink Companions analyst David Risinger informed CNBC final week that it may assist Lilly’s tablet finally generate higher gross sales globally.
Nonetheless, whereas gross sales of each corporations’ medicine might soar, costs are coming down throughout the board.
U.S. pricing headwinds
The GLP-1 market is going through broad value erosion following landmark “most favored nation” offers between corporations and the Trump administration. It is unclear how a lot of the value decline might be offset by quantity will increase.
“Irrespective of how nicely we do initially to meet up with the value lower … in fact, mathematically, [it] takes a little bit of time,” Doustdar stated, including the corporate is “very hopeful” and “working day and evening to speed up these quantity uptakes.”
Analysts largely imagine Novo is being deliberately cautious with its gross sales projections, baking within the anticipated pricing pressures.
“There are a selection of pushes and pulls in 2026, some have fairly excessive visibility, some have decrease visibility .… I feel Novo have added within the issues of excessive visibility greater than the issues of low visibility,” Baker stated.
The place there’s increased visibility is the place pricing is coming down, generics in Canada and some different markets, and restrictions on Medicaid for a few of their medicine, Baker stated: “They have these negatives in fairly absolutely.
“Given the issues they’d final 12 months, they do not wish to overpromise and underdeliver,” he stated.
Novo’s steerage probably does not embody any discount within the quantity of compounded medicine available on the market, because the FDA’s announcement of its “decisive steps” to limit GLP-1 compounding got here after the steerage was launched.
However the value sensitivity of customers for weight reduction medicine stays an enormous unknown, which makes higher volumes and extra entry factors necessary.
Novo is anticipating Medicare protection for weight reduction therapies, anticipated to start later this 12 months, to open up a 15 million-patient alternative, Doustdar informed CNBC.
Round 67 million People are lined by Medicare, however “while you check out particularly our merchandise and the goal group, I feel round 15 million folks could be a great quantity to focus on,” Doustdar stated. Although he stated Medicare entry to weight problems therapies will open up steadily.
Subsequent-generation therapies
Flags with the emblem of Novo Nordisk flutter subsequent to the corporate’s manufacturing facility in Hillerod on Nov. 12, 2025.
Sergei Gapon | AFP | Getty Photos
Novo can be pinning its hopes on different medicine in its pipeline to assist it claw again market share. That features a increased dose — 7.2 milligrams — of Wegovy, which is ready for FDA approval and will make the drug a stronger competitor to Zepbound.
Doustdar stated that increased dose helps sufferers lose round 21% of their weight, which is “very a lot on par” with the best dose of Zepbound. Wegovy, beneath its accredited doses, has proven round 15% weight reduction on common in medical trials.
“When that involves the market, my thought, my want, my hope is that folks will understand, OK, now we have now two merchandise with comparable efficacy,” Doustdar stated.
He added that “hopefully may also change the dynamic as we go ahead,” referring to the market’s rising desire for Zepbound.
BMO’s Seigerman stated it is tough to say whether or not that would be the case, as Zepbound is already entrenched as the most effective product within the injectable market.
Novo expects its next-generation remedy referred to as CagriSema to enter the market later this 12 months. That experimental weekly injection combines semaglutide with cagrilintide, which mimics one other intestine hormone referred to as amylin.
Novo Nordisk has defended CagriSema’s trial outcomes, which dissatisfied buyers, coming in beneath the anticipated 25% weight reduction on common.
On Wednesday, Doustdar stated the corporate was “penalized fairly harshly by the inventory market” for these outcomes, which confirmed round 23% weight reduction. However he stated the drug could be “among the best merchandise on the market” if it had been out there at this time.
To evaluate the true efficacy of the drug, “it is advisable to have a look at all the info collectively,” he added, pointing to 3 upcoming Part 3 trials for the drug, together with one research that pits CagriSema in opposition to Zepbound.
When requested whether or not Novo must additional diversify away from weight problems like rivals, Doustdar stated that the corporate does not see weight problems or diabetes as a single, monolithic illness and sees extra alternative in growing a number of, specialised therapies throughout the class.
Whereas the world labels thousands and thousands of sufferers merely as “overweight,” he stated the underlying biology and severity of the situation differ extensively — from somebody who must lose a modest quantity of weight to somebody with extreme issues like fatty liver illness requiring a transplant.
And because the market matures, Novo’s gross sales are nonetheless rising 12 months on 12 months on a continuing foreign money foundation, albeit at a slower tempo than earlier than. Solely time will inform when, or if, that can change.
Correction: This story has been revised to mirror that Novo Nordisk shares have traded within the vary of $43.24 to $64.16 this calendar 12 months. A earlier model misstated the time vary of the buying and selling unfold.
