A pharmacist shows a field of Wegovy tablets at a pharmacy in Provo, Utah, Jan. 15, 2026.
George Frey | Bloomberg | Getty Photographs
The way forward for the booming weight problems drug market will not hinge on medicine that ship larger weight reduction alone.
Prime executives from drugmakers massive and small informed CNBC that the subsequent section of the area will likely be outlined by a broader vary of therapy choices and improved entry for sufferers. These had been among the many themes that emerged on the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Convention in San Francisco throughout interviews with prime brass from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer and different drugmakers.
“We actually see the weight problems market going from, on this yr, a one-size-fits-all form of concept to totally different medicines for various sufferers. We do not have a crystal ball to know the way that each one kinds out,” Dan Skovronsky, Eli Lilly’s chief scientific officer, informed CNBC in an interview on the convention.
“However I feel by presenting folks with choices, they’re going to decide for themselves with their docs, and I feel we wish to have one thing for everybody,” he continued. “And we’re not performed but.”
Over the approaching years, executives count on an increasing menu of weight problems therapies that may be tailor-made to a person affected person’s wants — from tablets and less-frequent injections to mixture regimens and medicines designed to protect muscle mass whereas selling weight reduction. Some additionally count on the direct-to-consumer market to grow to be a fair bigger slice of the market, whereas hoping that hurdles stopping sufferers from getting therapy proceed to fall.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are extensively credited with establishing the market by way of their weekly GLP-1 injections for weight problems and diabetes, which have surged in recognition lately. The subsequent chapter is already taking form, with Novo launching the primary GLP-1 capsule for weight problems earlier this month and Lilly getting ready to carry an oral choice of its personal to market later this yr.
Whereas these corporations will play a vital position in how the area evolves, different gamers from pharma titan Pfizer to little-known upstarts might additionally enter the market — each threatening the 2 rivals’ gross sales dominance and providing extra therapy alternate options for shoppers.
Whereas entry stays a problem for a lot of sufferers, the power to get GLP-1s has improved notably over the previous yr. Each Novo and Lilly have slashed money costs for his or her injections and struck offers with President Donald Trump in November that can, for the primary time, introduce Medicare protection for weight problems medicine later this yr.
Extra therapy choices and wider entry might increase the case for analyst projections that say the load loss and diabetes drug market might be price virtually $100 billion yearly by the top of the last decade.
In an interview on the convention, Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar stated the corporate and Lilly at present have round 15 million folks mixed who’ve weight problems taking GLP-1s. There may be nonetheless a “lengthy tail” to reaching the 110 million which might be reportedly affected by the situation, together with those that are obese, he added.
In a Could report, McKinsey stated it expects a variety of 25 to 50 million U.S. sufferers to make use of GLP-1s by 2030.
Here is what executives say the way forward for the area might appear like.
The capsule potential
Tablets haven’t but confirmed simpler than injections.
Nonetheless, the consensus amongst executives is that oral choices might increase the market, reaching fully new sufferers. That will embody people who find themselves afraid of needles, in addition to individuals who may benefit from current injections however do not view their situation as extreme sufficient to warrant a weekly shot.
In an interview on the convention, Doustdar stated it might additionally embody individuals who journey steadily and might’t simply refrigerate injections.
“There may be a lot aligned precisely with this market enlargement story … as a result of there’s a enormous variety of sufferers which might be merely not all for dropping pounds at the price of injecting themselves,” Doustdar stated.
The “actual progress” and uptake of the tablets goes to come back from major care physicians, who write nearly all of prescriptions for People and usually choose tablets to injections, stated Ray Stevens, the CEO of weight problems market hopeful Construction Therapeutics.
He stated he believes his firm’s GLP-1 capsule, aleniglipron, would be the third to enter the market after Eli Lilly’s and Novo Nordisk’s. Construction’s oral drug will enter Section 3 trials this yr.
Each day tablets can supply extra flexibility to sufferers. For instance, Stevens stated a affected person might reduce a capsule in half to mitigate uncomfortable side effects on a day after they have an necessary assembly to attend.
Lilly’s Skovronsky stated tablets may also function a manner for sufferers to “deescalate their remedy” after taking injections. The corporate in December launched information displaying that sufferers who initially took Wegovy or Zepbound photographs maintained nearly all of their weight reduction after switching to Lilly’s capsule.
“They are saying, ‘I’ve misplaced the load, I’ve acquired this, so I can preserve this alone with one thing much less robust,'” Skovronsky stated.
Construction can also be growing an oral medicine that targets amylin, an rising type of weight reduction therapy that mimics a hormone co-secreted with insulin within the pancreas to suppress urge for food and cut back meals consumption. Novo is growing a drugs referred to as amycretin, which targets each GLP-1 and amylin to supply probably enhanced weight reduction.
Mixing and matching medicine
Stevens stated mixture regimens are “going to be the subsequent section of the sector.”
For instance, Construction hopes to mix its oral GLP-1 and amylin medicine to attain even larger weight reduction than one alone would, which he stated will seemingly be “top-of-the-line combos of the long run.” It is too early to say which sufferers can be the very best match for that routine, however Stevens stated it might obtain “good tolerability, actually good affected person expertise and good efficacy.”
He stated the corporate is already engaged on manufacturing the 2 elements collectively in a single capsule, which has similarities to what Novo’s amycretin achieves.
However he stated mixture regimens can even assist deal with sure obesity-related circumstances higher than one product alone. That might appear like combining a GLP-1 with one of many current therapies for fatty liver illness.
“I really feel just like the winners are actually beginning to emerge for the monotherapy” therapies, he stated. However Stevens stated the therapy sufferers take will section in keeping with the opposite well being circumstances an individual has on prime of weight problems, similar to fatty liver illness, persistent kidney illness and heart problems.
Lilly’s upcoming capsule is an oral GLP-1, however Skovronsky stated the corporate can see the potential for a capsule that targets that hormone together with one other referred to as GIP, since that is a “most well-liked formulation.”
That is how tirzepatide, the lively ingredient in Lilly’s blockbuster weight problems and diabetes injections, works. That drug has confirmed to be simpler than semaglutide, the lively ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s rival injections, which solely targets GLP-1.
Skovronsky stated, “we’re working laborious to create these medicines” in an oral kind, however aren’t able to disclose any particulars.
Pfizer inherited a number of experimental injections and tablets with mixture potential from its roughly $10 billion acquisition of the weight problems biotech Metsera final yr.
However Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla stated the corporate can also be growing an in-house oral drug that blocks the GIP receptor, which may considerably cut back uncomfortable side effects when mixed with GLP-1.
“I’ve very excessive hopes that it’ll additionally differentiate,” Bourla stated.
One biotech, Wave Life Sciences, additionally sees combos as a part of its broader technique, its CEO Paul Bolno stated in an interview on the convention.
Totally different weight reduction strategies
Wave is taking a unique method to weight reduction, focusing on how the physique burns fats relatively than suppressing urge for food. The aim is to attain comparable weight reduction to GLP-1s, with out the related muscle loss, and with much less frequent dosing of a couple of times a yr relatively than weekly.
That push comes amid rising deal with the standard of weight reduction with next-generation weight problems medicine, as GLP-1 therapies have raised issues round muscle loss, uncomfortable side effects and affected person drop-offs.
Wave has an experimental injection that makes use of RNA know-how to decrease ranges of a protein referred to as activin E – a liver-produced protein that slows fats burning. By lowering that protein, Wave believes the drug can improve fats loss, significantly dangerous visceral fats, whereas preserving lean muscle mass.
Bolno stated the corporate is growing the injection, referred to as WVE-007, as a monotherapy or a possible upkeep therapy that sufferers can swap to and take far much less steadily after being on GLP-1s.
However he additionally sees the chance to mix the corporate’s injection with GLP-1s to “proceed to drive advantages.”
“We are able to double the load loss on GLP-1s together,” Bolno stated, referring to what the corporate is seeing in preclinical analysis.
He stated including Wave’s injection on prime of a GLP-1 will not make it harder for sufferers to tolerate the therapy routine, so it makes the corporate’s drug “very amenable to mixture” choices.
As for who can use Wave’s injection, Bolno stated it’s going to work for any affected person since “this occurs to be a goal that is truly in human genetics.”
The way forward for the business will seemingly additionally embody medicine that may obtain even larger weight reduction than the present therapies in the marketplace.
Lilly in December launched the primary late-stage information on an injectable drug referred to as retatrutide, the very best dose of which achieved greater than 28% weight reduction at 68 weeks amongst sufferers who stayed on the therapy. Lilly will learn out information on seven different Section 3 trials on the drug this yr.
Dubbed the “triple G” drug, retatrutide works by mimicking three hunger-regulating hormones — GLP-1, GIP and glucagon — relatively than only one or two. That seems to have stronger results on an individual’s urge for food and satisfaction with meals than different therapies.
Skovronsky stated the drug might serve sufferers who want extra weight reduction or produce other extreme well being circumstances on prime of weight problems, similar to arthritis knee ache.
Novo Nordisk is racing to catch up: In March, it agreed to pay as much as $2 billion for the rights to an early experimental drug from Chinese language drugmaker United Laboratories Worldwide. The newly acquired therapy is a transparent potential competitor to retatrutide as a result of it equally makes use of a three-pronged method to selling weight reduction and regulating blood sugar.
Affected person entry to medicine
The business has made strides towards bettering drug entry for sufferers, and executives count on that can proceed. The money value of Novo’s capsule is already the bottom seen in the marketplace, at $149 for the beginning dose and as much as $299 for the upper doses.
GLP-1 injections are roughly $1,000 per thirty days earlier than insurance coverage and with out latest money reductions.
Each Pfizer’s Bourla and Lilly’s Skovronsky stated upcoming Medicare protection of weight problems medicine must also transfer the needle with protection.
“As soon as the federal government begins protecting it in Medicare, it in all probability will grow to be increasingly more uncomfortable for employers to not — it is that societal stress,” Skovronsky stated.
He additionally pointed to an “activation of shoppers,” the place sufferers are beginning to name their employers and ask why their advantages do not cowl weight problems medicine.
Drugmakers, researchers and scientists are additionally producing extra information about the advantages of weight problems medicine for health-care spending, which might assist spur extra employer protection, Skovronsky stated.
“So for employers, is there much less absenteeism? Is there higher productiveness? Is there higher medical prices?” he stated. “The info’s coming in, and we’re seeing increasingly more of that.”
When it comes to the direct-to-consumer channel, Skovronsky stated it could grow to be the “fastest-growing section” of the area given the latest push for drugmakers to launch money choices.
Lilly was among the many first corporations to launch a direct-to-consumer platform in 2024 providing its weight problems drug Zepbound at a reduction, and Novo adopted greater than a yr later.
Bourla estimated that the direct-to-consumer channel already makes up 30% of the weight problems and diabetes drug market within the U.S. It might grow to be nearer to 90% or extra of that market overseas, he added.
When requested about what the broader market will appear like by 2030, Construction’s Stevens stated he hopes entry and affordability are not points.
“I am okay with the associated fee dropping as a result of, to me, this has at all times been about quantity and actually making an attempt to handle a really massive unmet want globally itself,” he stated.
