US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on Air Power One earlier than taking off from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on Feb. 19, 2026.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Pictures
Oil costs have been steady on Friday, after President Donald Trump stated he was contemplating a restricted navy strike to stress Iran over its nuclear program.
“I assume I can say I’m contemplating that,” Trump stated when requested by a reporter at a White Home breakfast with U.S. governors.
Worldwide benchmark Brent crude futures with April supply rose 10 cents to shut at $71.76 per barrel, whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March supply misplaced 4 cents to settle at $66.39.
Each contracts notched their highest settle in six months within the earlier session as power market individuals proceed to watch provide dangers within the oil-rich Center East.
The U.S. and Iran have held talks in Switzerland this week to attempt to resolve a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. Preliminary studies of progress, nevertheless, gave method to accusations from Washington that Iran had failed to handle core U.S. calls for.
Talking on the first assembly of his Board of Peace in Washington on Thursday, the U.S. president stated “dangerous issues will occur” if Tehran would not conform to a deal over its nuclear program.
Trump added that the world will doubtless discover out over the following 10 days whether or not the U.S. will attain a cope with Iran or take navy motion. He later informed reporters aboard Air Power One which he needed an settlement inside “10 to fifteen days.”
Brent crude futures during the last six months.
His feedback come after a important buildup of U.S. navy forces within the Center East and amid studies the White Home is contemplating contemporary navy motion towards Tehran as quickly as this weekend.
Trump stated Iran’s nuclear potential had been “completely decimated” by U.S. strikes on its amenities in June final yr, earlier than including “we might must take it a step additional or we might not,” with out offering additional particulars.
Iran reportedly stated in a letter to United Nations Secretary-Common Antonio Guterres on Thursday that Tehran will reply “decisively” if subjected to navy aggression.
The Islamic Republic has carried out navy drills within the strategically very important Strait of Hormuz in latest days, in addition to joint naval drills with Russia within the Gulf of Oman, also referred to as the Sea of Oman.
Naval items from Iran and Russia perform to simulation of rescue a hijacked vessel through the joint naval drills held on the Port of Bandar Abbas close to the Strait of Hormuz in Hormozgan, Iran on February 19, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Pictures
“The whole lot is in place, or might be by Saturday night time, for strikes to begin and so the window opens then,” Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, informed CNBC’s “Entry Center East” on Friday.
“Does not imply that is going to occur instantly. The president did point out that he’s ready to listen to from Iran whether or not they’re ready to make concessions on their nuclear program that he is insisting on,” Shapiro stated.
“I feel it is unlikely. We now have by no means seen Iran open to these forms of concessions, so I feel it’s unlikely they’ll conform to these, which signifies that within the days coming, the president must make that call on navy strikes,” he added.
A ‘very nicely equipped’ market
The Trump administration has stated it nonetheless hopes to achieve a diplomatic decision over Tehran’s nuclear program, with White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Wednesday that it might be “very clever” for Iran to make a deal.
Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that, whereas the oil market is “very nicely equipped” on a world foundation, there are three elements propping up costs.
“Worries about Iran, clearly. Additionally, an unusually great amount of shopping for by China, merely for stockpiling functions. It makes you surprise what they’ll do with all these inventories after which additionally we’ve very excessive freight charges,” Rats informed CNBC’s “Europe Early Version” on Friday.
“The issue of these three that’s most outstanding, in fact, is the difficulty in Iran,” Rats stated.
Strategists at Barclays stated Friday that whereas fairness markets have largely shrugged off the geopolitical noise thus far, tensions have been rising since Vice President JD Vance accused Iran of failing to debate so-called “pink strains,” alongside studies of elevated U.S. navy functionality within the area.
“We consider that any strike would doubtless must be time restricted and with outlined targets (nuclear, ballistic missiles), as they have been final summer season,” the strategists stated in a analysis word.
“With midterm elections later this yr and the administration prioritizing affordability for US shoppers, we suspect their willingness to tolerate a chronic interval of considerably greater oil costs, and probably casualties too, might be restricted,” they continued. “So if battle is imminent it’s more likely to be brief lived, in our view.”
