U.S. President Donald Trump disembarks Air Drive One at Palm Seaside Worldwide Airport in West Palm Seaside, Florida, U.S., Feb. 13, 2026.
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters
The Trump administration has warned it could be “very smart” for Iran to make a deal, amid studies the White Home is contemplating recent navy motion towards Tehran as quickly as this weekend.
It comes shortly after Vice President JD Vance accused Iran of failing to handle core U.S. calls for throughout nuclear talks in Switzerland this week. Iran’s overseas minister beforehand reported progress within the talks, saying the 2 international locations had reached an understanding over the “guiding rules” for the negotiations.
Talking at a information briefing Wednesday, White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt mentioned that there have been “many causes and arguments that one may make for a strike towards Iran,” noting that the 2 international locations stay “very far aside” on some points.
U.S. President Donald Trump had a “very profitable” operation final June, Leavitt mentioned, when U.S. stealth bombers struck three Iranian nuclear amenities as a part of “Operation Midnight Hammer.”
“The president has at all times been very clear although with respect to Iran or any nation all over the world, diplomacy is at all times his first possibility. And Iran could be very smart to make a take care of President Trump and this administration,” Leavitt mentioned.
The White Home has mentioned it nonetheless hopes to achieve a diplomatic decision over Tehran’s nuclear program, though U.S. media has reported that the navy could possibly be ready to strike Iran as early because the weekend.
‘Extraordinarily harmful’ state of affairs
Each the U.S. and Iran have elevated navy exercise within the oil-producing Center East area in latest weeks.
The U.S., for its half, has constructed up a big presence of air and naval belongings, whereas Iran has carried out navy drills within the strategically very important Strait of Hormuz and introduced joint naval drills with Russia within the Gulf of Oman, also called the Sea of Oman.
Laura James, Center East senior analyst at Oxford Analytica, described the present state of affairs as “extraordinarily harmful,” with the U.S. and Iran “definitely nearer” to an outright battle than final week.
“The factor that’s now a specific concern over the previous 24 hours is the very speedy tempo at which the USA is reinforcing its air energy within the area. That, in fact, can nonetheless be signaling and stress for a specific diplomatic end result,” James advised CNBC’s “Entry Center East” on Thursday.
“However as increasingly planes are available in and increasingly gear is available in, that signaling will get increasingly costly. And due to this fact, the payoff you need for it in diplomatic phrases needs to be bigger — and there’s merely no signal Tehran can supply absolutely the minimal that Washington is more likely to demand,” she added.
Oil costs
Power market individuals have been carefully watching the end result of the U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva, notably because it pertains to the Strait of Hormuz, a serious worldwide waterway that Iran partially closed on Tuesday citing “safety precautions.”
Positioned within the gulf between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is acknowledged as one of many world’s most essential oil choke factors.
Iranian navy personnel participate in an train titled ‘Good Management of the Strait of Hormuz’, launched by the Naval Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is being carried out within the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz on February 16, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Photographs
About 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, accounting for roughly 31% of worldwide seaborne crude flows, knowledge supplied by market intelligence agency Kpler confirmed.
Oil costs had been increased on Thursday, extending positive factors after settling up greater than 4% within the earlier session.
Worldwide benchmark Brent crude futures with April supply rose 1.5% to $71.41 per barrel, whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March supply stood 1.7% increased at $66.27.
— CNBC’s Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.
Correction: White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt mentioned Wednesday that there have been “many causes and arguments that one may make for a strike towards Iran.” An earlier model misquoted her. Laura James, Center East senior analyst at Oxford Analytica advised CNBC on Thursday, “However as increasingly planes are available in and increasingly gear is available in, that signaling will get increasingly costly.” An earlier model misquoted her.
