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Novo Nordisk is not catching a break this yr.
Shares of the Danish drugmaker plummeted on Monday after it launched information exhibiting that its next-generation weight problems drug didn’t match the burden loss of Eli Lilly‘s Zepbound in a part three trial.
The outcomes confirmed that Novo’s drug, CagriSema, promoted barely much less weight reduction than Zepbound at 84 weeks within the research — a distinction that places the gross sales potential of the experimental remedy into query. Analysts all elevate the identical level: Why would sufferers or medical doctors select Novo’s drug over a more practical and widely-known alternative like Zepbound?
“We battle to establish a cause why a affected person can be prescribed CagriSema” as an alternative of Zepbound if the product involves market, stated BMO analyst Evan Seigerman in a Monday notice.
In a separate notice on Monday, JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott stated the outcomes “will make it troublesome for the product to realize [market] share” from Lilly. If something, it confirms Zepbound as a “clear market chief” and positions Lilly to realize much more market share, he added.
Nonetheless, Novo is not giving up on the product.
It is too late anyway: the corporate already filed for Meals and Drug Administration approval of CagriSema, with a call anticipated in late 2026. That implies that the drug may launch by the top of the yr or early 2027.
“To say it is out of date is kind of belittling a unbelievable drug, in all honesty,” Novo’s CEO Mike Doustdar informed analysts on Monday, disregarding issues about CagriSema’s industrial potential. He stated he believes the drug has higher weight reduction efficacy than something in the marketplace.
Novo is “happy” with the 23% weight reduction that CagriSema triggered, which exhibits that it presents “clinically significant additive weight reduction results” which are superior to what’s been seen with medication that solely goal GLP-1, Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange stated in a launch on Monday. That features semaglutide, the energetic ingredient in Novo’s current weight problems injection Wegovy. CagriSema combines semaglutide and cagrilintide, one other hormone launched within the pancreas that impacts urge for food.
Lilly’s Zepound helped individuals lose round 25% of their weight within the trial, however Doustdar known as that an “abnormality” that has not been seen in every other research.
Novo can also be pinning its hopes on different upcoming trials to indicate CagriSema’s full weight reduction potential.
That features the REDEFINE 11 trial, a part three research that can evaluate CagriSema to a placebo in 600 adults with weight problems. The preliminary outcomes from that trial are anticipated within the first half of 2027.
However Novo has a lot to show to Wall Avenue. BMO’s Seigerman stated he isn’t satisfied that the upcoming trial “goes to alter the narrative round CagriSema.”
Novo additionally expects to start a part three trial investigating a better dose of CagriSema within the second half of 2026. On the decision with analysts, Doustdar prompt that the larger efficacy seen with a better dose of Wegovy may translate to CagriSema.
The usual doses of Wegovy trigger round 15% to 16% weight reduction, whereas the excessive dose comes nearer to 21%, he stated.
No matter how CagriSema performs, Novo must discover a sturdy competitor to Lilly’s medication. Zepbound’s larger efficacy has allowed it to win important market share, and Lilly is planning to launch a next-generation weight problems drug that targets three intestine hormones and has promoted greater than 28% weight reduction in medical trials.
Novo final yr paid $2 billion for the rights to a Chinese language drugmaker’s experimental drugs, which works in the identical means as Lilly’s upcoming remedy.
Nevertheless, with Novo’s product nonetheless in early-stage growth, M&A may provide a sooner path ahead.
Doustdar informed me in January that Novo plans to be an energetic dealmaker to “see if anybody else on the market has one thing that may complement our personal pipeline.”
Be at liberty to ship any ideas, solutions, story concepts and information to Annika at a brand new electronic mail: annika.constantino@versantmedia.com.
