A mini burger, mini fries and mini beer, Clinton Corridor’s “Teeny Weeny Mini Meal”, is pictured subsequent to a regular-sized combo on Dec. 8, 2025 in New York Metropolis. Roughly one in eight American adults are at the moment taking medicine from the category of GLP-1 agonists that are actually common for weight reduction, in keeping with a November ballot by the non-profit well being coverage tracker KFF. Some within the restaurant business are taking word.
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The price of GLP-1 medicine is falling, and tablet variations are hitting the U.S. market. For restaurant chains and snacking giants, larger adoption of weight reduction and diabetes remedies poses a risk to their gross sales — or a chance.
GLP-1 medicine sluggish digestion, suppress customers’ appetites and improve satiety. For a lot of eating places and packaged meals producers, these reactions will probably imply weaker gross sales. Adults who use GLP-1s eat 21% fewer energy and spend almost a 3rd much less on grocery payments on common, in keeping with KPMG. JPMorgan estimates the rising use of the medicines may wipe out $30 billion to $55 billion in annual gross sales for the meals and beverage business as quickly as 2030.
About one in each eight U.S. adults is at the moment taking a GLP-1 drug like Ozempic or Zepbound, in keeping with the KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot carried out from Oct. 27 to Nov. 2. That quantity would not embrace shoppers who’ve discontinued their use of the medicine; 18% of respondents stated that they’ve taken a GLP-1 medicine sooner or later.
These numbers are anticipated to maintain climbing, particularly after Novo Nordisk launched its Wegovy tablet in January and Eli Lilly prepares to roll out its personal oral drug this 12 months. By 2030, greater than 30 million Individuals may very well be on a GLP-1 remedy, up from 10 million in 2026, based mostly on J.P. Morgan estimates.
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However the shift additionally presents a chance for eating places and meals and beverage firms.
With new protein- and fiber-rich choices, many companies are hoping to win over GLP-1 shoppers and mollify buyers’ issues about how the remedies will have an effect on their backside strains.
“Whether or not it’s labeling as GLP-1 pleasant, reducing the serving dimension, emphasizing protein content material, and even if you shift over to the beverage world, as a result of hydration is definitely a priority, there are a selection of gamers which are beginning to react to this,” stated Don Ok. Johnson, principal of technique and execution for EY-Parthenon.
Skipping snacks and breakfast
About half of GLP-1 customers report consuming fewer energy whereas taking the medicines, in keeping with UBS Proof Lab. However the results aren’t even throughout the business, and “sure classes are extra impacted than others,” Johnson stated.
Snacking, as soon as one of many fastest-growing grocery segments, has taken the most important hit. About 70% of GLP-1 customers who report consuming fewer energy stated that they’re snacking much less, in keeping with a survey carried out by EY-Parthenon final spring.
“I believe it’s in regards to the particular sort of snack, however I do assume they’re additionally snacking much less … Having stated that, we do see that there’s a shift to more healthy meals, and that definitely will embrace more healthy snacking,” Johnson stated.
Assume extra yogurt, nuts or fruit, and fewer chips or pretzels.
Since GLP-1 medicine lead sufferers to decrease their caloric consumption, each calorie consumed means extra. Protein consumption is extra necessary to forestall muscle loss. So, too, is fiber to assist intestine well being and digestion. And staying hydrated helps mitigate among the medicine’ unintended effects, like nausea and complications.
The consequences of consuming much less prolong to eating places. About 60% of these respondents to the EY-Parthenon survey stated that they’re eating out much less often.
The shift may additionally hit full-service eating places the place diners order a drink with their meals. Roughly 45% of survey respondents who’re consuming and ingesting much less stated that they’re ingesting much less alcohol.
Surveys carried out by Bernstein point out that the frequency of restaurant visits amongst GLP-1 customers can fall by as a lot as 45%, relying on the class of meals and the character of the event, analyst Danilo Gargiulo of Bernstein wrote in a analysis word revealed on Tuesday.
The pullback in restaurant visits is not unfold evenly throughout occasions of day, in keeping with Dana Baggett, government director of restaurant consumer technique at RRD, which works with greater than 200 restaurant manufacturers.
Lunch, to this point, hasn’t been impacted, she stated. However breakfast has taken a success, notably from high-income GLP-1 customers, who signify an even bigger share of present sufferers, she stated. In apply, which means fewer sugary espresso drinks and doughnuts, though choices like Starbucks‘ protein chilly foam may encourage these shoppers to return.
A business for GLP-1 medicine throughout the Tremendous Bowl LX broadcast on tv screens at a bar in Los Angeles, California, US, on Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026.
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Dinner, particularly at fast-food eating places, has taken the brunt of the injury to this point.
Dinner visitors has fallen 6% amongst shoppers who’ve been taking the medicine usually, in keeping with Baggett; in different phrases, general restaurant gross sales throughout dinner hours have declined about 0.4% because of GLP-1 use, she stated. However because the variety of shoppers who use the drug persistently grows, so too will the stress on restaurant visitors.
And snacking is not confined to grocery retailer aisles. For limited-service eating places, like McDonald’s or Taco Bell, snacking accounts for 12% of spending, in keeping with Financial institution of America International Analysis.
Even so, threats to these giant eating places chains could solely be gradual, which provides them time to adapt.
“I believe there should not be this panic on the market within the market, however it is a development that is not going away,” Baggett stated. “That is an incredible alternative for manufacturers to begin repositioning themselves and specializing in what shoppers need: much less sugar, larger protein and that concentrate on fiber.”
How Large Meals is evolving
If current earnings convention calls are any instance, restaurant and meals executives additionally assume that it is not time to panic simply but. For some firms, the development gives an opportunity to succeed in new clients via more healthy choices.
“I believe there are extra alternatives than threats, however there are each,” PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta instructed Wall Avenue analysts on the corporate’s earnings convention name in early February.
In current months, Pepsi has launched protein-packed Doritos, relaunched Gatorade and unveiled fiber-rich kinds of SunChips and Smartfood popcorn. These strikes are a part of the corporate’s broader technique to modernize its portfolio and enhance gross sales by interesting to health-conscious shoppers, however in addition they align with Laguarta’s assumption that GLP-1 medicines will likely be adopted extra broadly.
Domino’s Pizza CEO Russell Weiner sounded unshaken when he instructed analysts final month that the pizza chain hasn’t seen GLP-1 medicine have an effect on its gross sales but.
“Dinner, for us, is a sharing event, so maybe that is why we’re not seeing any influence, however we will proceed to observe it,” he stated. “But when there must be menu innovation round that, we are going to try this.”
RRD’s Baggett instructed CNBC that she thinks parts and snack sizing will likely be key for eating places to draw shoppers who’re on GLP-1 remedies.
When requested in regards to the medicine on McDonald’s earnings convention name final month, CEO Chris Kempczinski touted the burger chain’s current protein choices. However he added that the preferences of GLP-1 customers are additionally being thought of because the chain creates new menu gadgets.
“We’re additionally seeing adjustments round possibly much less snacking, adjustments in among the drinks that they drink, much less sugary drinks, and so all of these issues are factoring into a few of what we’re on the market experimenting with and testing with,” he stated.
Different restaurant chains have already launched choices that attraction to diners on GLP-1 medicine, even when the medicines weren’t the important thing impetus. For instance, Chipotle launched grab-and-go protein cups in December, aiming to money in on the protein and snacking crazes as its restaurant gross sales struggled.
And Olive Backyard, owned by Darden Eating places, launched a Lighter Parts menu final 12 months, downsizing a handful of its traditional entrees at a cheaper price. Darden CEO Rick Cardenas stated that the chain launched the brand new menu to offer all of its clients extra choices.
“It simply so occurs to profit the shoppers which may need smaller parts which are on GLP-1 medicines, and now we have a number of choices like that in all of our menus,” Cardenas stated on the corporate’s earnings convention name in December.
Advertising to GLP-1 customers
Different firms have explicitly appealed to GLP-1 customers, notably with regards to innovation.
In 2024, Nestle led the pack when it launched Digital Pursuit, a frozen-food model concentrating on GLP-1 customers. Whereas the packaging initially did not name out that it was “GLP-1 pleasant,” the meals firm up to date it later to incorporate it prominently, boosting gross sales.
“It is a massive initiative for Nestle,” Nestle USA CEO Marty Thompson instructed CNBC at a media occasion earlier in March. “There will likely be these issues which are designed for GLP-1, and there will likely be these issues that will likely be type of a companion to GLP-1, clearly calling out protein and fiber, however not essentially designed portion-size clever or no matter for GLP-1.”
Nestle’s focus will prolong past meals, too. Thompson stated that the corporate plans to increase into drinks and listed protein shakes as one potential solution to attraction to GLP-1 clients.
Even meals firms with out a lot publicity to GLP-1 customers are broadening their portfolios to succeed in them.
Shut-up view of Dippin’ Dots ice cream cup in an individual’s hand, Santa Cruz, California, June 22, 2024.
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For instance, Dippin’ Dots and Icee proprietor J&J Snack Meals makes most of its gross sales in stadiums, theme parks and malls. Due to its “experiential” focus, CEO Dan Fachner instructed CNBC that he thinks that J&J is extra insulated from the impact of GLP-1 medicine in contrast with its snacking friends.
“I nonetheless assume that usually, even folks on GLP-1 medicine will nonetheless use these events for snacking,” he stated.
Even nonetheless, greater than a 12 months in the past, Fachner introduced workers with a problem for the corporate’s grocery enterprise, which accounts for 13.5% of annual gross sales.
“Take the core merchandise — pretzels and churros and Icees and Dippin’ Dots and frozen novelties — inform me how we are able to make them extra GLP-1 pleasant because it continues to develop,” he stated.
This 12 months, J&J has numerous new merchandise hitting the freezer aisle. Protein has been added to its comfortable pretzels, now accessible in a smaller portion dimension. And Luigi’s Italian Ice, historically offered in a cup, will are available in a “mini pop dimension,” with a method that features extra antioxidants or helps hydration, in keeping with Fachner. If the brand new merchandise achieve grocery shops, then J&J plans to take them to the corporate’s meals service clients, as properly.
J&J’s new merchandise additionally benefit from interesting to a wider viewers than simply shoppers who’re on GLP-1 medicine. For instance, Fachner expects the brand new Luigi’s mini pops will attraction to health-conscious mothers as a snack for his or her children.
Uptake may change methods
For eating places and meals suppliers, present information on the consuming and ingesting habits of GLP-1 customers are informing their efforts to attraction to these shoppers. However that conduct can nonetheless fluctuate.
About 5% of customers lapse in taking the medicines, because of value, unintended effects or hitting their weight objective. After quitting, they have an inclination to take care of the identical consuming habits for a few months earlier than finally returning to a better caloric consumption.
“I believe that we do not spend sufficient time speaking about the truth that there could also be type of a cycle of behaviors — folks occurring and off of the medicine — that can have type of an fascinating influence on producers of meals as a result of there is no ‘earlier than’ and ‘after,'” EY’s Johnson stated. “It is a course of.”
And a complete new group of shoppers may quickly be taking every day tablet variations of GLP-1 medicines. It is too quickly to inform if oral GLP-1 medicine will end in extra constant utilization or larger give up charges and to know who precisely is making an attempt the tablet model over the injectable.
“I haven’t got a crystal ball, however my guess is from our survey that the parents utilizing the oral model of the drug will likely be a brand new set of individuals, as a result of one of many obstacles to trial was — as will be anticipated — lots of people do not prefer to take pictures of injections,” Johnson stated.
There may be one prediction that’s broadly accepted: the tablet model will imply a lot larger adoption of GLP-1 medicine.
