Earlier this yr, Thomas Christian Owens determined to strive his hand at prediction market buying and selling for the primary time. He created a Kalshi account in January. Three months and a $500 deposit later, he began betting.
“It was a little bit little bit of a birthday present to myself to throw some cash in there and simply have some enjoyable,” the 29-year-old manufacturing engineer informed CBS Information.
Owens wasn’t anticipating to make a killing. He informed CBS Information that he wished a little bit more money in his pocket to assist himself and a few of his relations. He had some early successes, however simply over a month after he began buying and selling, the Oklahoma Metropolis resident discovered himself within the purple.
Younger males like Owens say they’re drawn to prediction markets in the hunt for thrills, quick cash and in some circumstances, monetary safety.
Near 40% of younger males between 18 and 34 use prediction markets, in accordance with an April survey from Navigator Analysis, a public opinion analysis group. On Kalshi, one of many main prediction markets within the U.S., roughly 3 million of the platform’s 4 million lively customers are male. Six in 10 of the platform’s whole customers are between the ages of 18 and 34.
Prediction markets have not too long ago drawn scrutiny for alleged insider buying and selling — with males on the heart of a number of high-profile circumstances. That features a Google worker who was accused of allegedly making greater than $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on confidential firm data. A U.S. particular forces soldier was arrested after allegedly betting on the elimination from workplace of former Venezuelan chief Nicolás Maduro earlier than information of the U.S. raid was made public. Former Rep. George Santos of New York can also be beneath scrutiny for alleged insider buying and selling on Kalshi.
Specialists say it isn’t stunning that males are the first prospects of prediction markets, given their propensity for danger.
“Younger males have a tendency to precise extra confidence than ladies in the case of monetary selections and taking dangers,” stated Michael Liersch, a behavioral finance skilled and chief planning officer at funding adviser Edelman Monetary Engines. “That has to do with a powerful perception about being proper.”
The joys of prediction markets
Prediction markets enable customers to wager on a variety of potential occasions. To commerce on the platforms, customers sometimes place wagers on “sure” and “no” questions referred to as occasion contracts, that are priced between $0 and $1. A profitable wager ends in a $1 payout per contract, whereas an incorrect prediction loses cash.
Customers can commerce on something from whether or not the U.S. authorities will verify the existence of aliens to which males’s workforce will win this yr’s World Cup. Owens, a basketball fan, largely trades on sports-related occasions, together with bets on his hometown NBA workforce, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder.
Offered by Thomas Christian Owens 
One in all his early basketball “combo” bets, which lets customers bundle a number of occasion contracts right into a single commerce, netted him $456 from a $50 wager — a greater than an 800% return. On one other combo wager, he precisely predicted the end result of three professional basketball video games, turning $196 into practically $1,700.
One other widespread wager for prediction market customers is so-called “point out markets,” which permit customers to place cash on particular phrases or phrases that politicians, celebrities and different individuals will use throughout occasions.
That is how Steven Zhang, a pupil on the College of California, Los Angeles, first heard about Polymarket. The 20-year-old was learning within the library with a buddy in 2024 when he got here throughout a social media advert inviting individuals to wager on what President Trump would say throughout a presidential debate. Zhang had seen the advert a couple of occasions earlier than. This time, he and his pals determined they wished some pores and skin within the sport.
“I bear in mind we put $20 into Polymarket, in a crypto pockets, after which we made some bets, and we misplaced all of it,” he stated.
Offered by Steven Zhang 
Zhang now trades on Kalshi, betting on extremely unsure outcomes comparable to what TV announcers will say throughout NBA video games and the U.S.-Iran battle. “I am beginning actually small. I believe I’ve like $150 in my account,” he stated. “I’ve the sum of money that I am snug shedding.”
CBS Information reached out to Kalshi with questions on its male buyer base however didn’t obtain a response previous to publication.
For Zhang, the joys of prediction markets is placing your cash the place your mouth is.
“Realizing that you could possibly be proper or flawed, I believe, is a part of the sport,” he stated.
Specialists say that a part of why males hunt down prediction markets can boil all the way down to a easy organic differentiation. Males usually tend to think about speculative property and are much less afraid to lose cash than their feminine counterparts.
“They’ve possibly much less of what economists name an endowment impact, which is after they have a specific amount, they do not care [if they] lose all of it as readily as possibly ladies do,” David Bieri, an affiliate professor at Virginia Tech, informed CBS Information.
When males strike it fortunate on prediction markets, they stroll away with extra than simply cash: they earn bragging rights, Bieri stated.
“There’s social standing from being seen as profitable in these high-prestige markets,” he informed CBS Information. “Which younger man doesn’t need to be the ‘Wolf of Wall Avenue’?”
A shedding sport?
When Owens opened a Kalshi account, he stated he hoped any winnings would complement his earnings and allow him to supply monetary assist to his household.
“I am not supporting anyone as a dependent proper now, however I’ve a couple of relations which might be actually down on their funds in the mean time, so attempting to assist them out, too,” he stated.
Past making more money, males might also flip to prediction markets in the hunt for monetary safety. In a latest survey, Northwestern Mutual discovered that 75% of males really feel financially behind and assume speculative investments, together with prediction markets, may help them catch up. That is in comparison with 69% of girls.
“When individuals really feel behind, typically dangerous decisions can appear like a shortcut,” John Roberts, chief discipline officer at Northwestern Mutual, informed CBS Information in an e mail, including that headlines about rising costs and attainable Social Safety cuts can add to the strain.
However the actuality for many customers differs from the expectations that introduced them to the positioning. After a string of losses, Owens’ account stability not too long ago dropped to $1,700 — beneath the $2,500 he had deposited. Out of warning, he’s now conserving his prediction market bets to beneath $100, he stated.
“I had virtually $4,600 at one level however squandered that, for certain,” Owens wrote in a textual content message.
A handful of Kalshi customers have made a whole bunch of thousands and thousands of {dollars}. However that is extremely unlikely for the overwhelming majority of customers. In response to a Wall Avenue Journal evaluation, greater than 67% of earnings on Polymarket went to 0.1% of accounts.
A Polymarket spokesperson did not handle a collection of questions posed by CBS Information for this story, as an alternative responding with a press release saying: “Polymarket is open to eligible adults 18 and older, and we proceed to construct on our mission to share human-informed information with the world via open, capital-backed markets.”
The common person prediction market has the chances stacked in opposition to them, in accordance with Jordan Bender, managing director of gaming fairness analysis on the monetary agency Residents.
Analysis from Residents discovered that the median return on funding for a prediction market person was -8%, which means they’d lose $8 for each $100 spent.
“Individuals should not anticipate to stroll into betting of any sort and stroll away a winner,” Bender stated.
